Solar photovoltaic demand to reach 31 gigawatts in 2013, according to NPD solarbuzz

Tuesday, Mar 12, 2013

Solar photovoltaic (PV) demand will increase two gigawatts (GW), from 29 GW to 31 GW during 2013, up 7% Y/Y according to the new NPD Solarbuzz Marketbuzz 2013. For the first time, China will outpace Germany to become the leading PV consumer, while the top 10 PV territories will still account for 83% of global PV demand.

“2013 will represent another transition year, as the PV industry adjusts to softness across legacy European markets,” according to Michael Barker, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. “The Chinese end-market will largely compensate for the downturn in demand from Germany, which previously led PV demand.”

Global Shift in PV Demand

Due to further reductions in European premium incentives, demand in this region will fall to approximately 12 GW, which is a 26% Y/Y decline. In contrast, new policies across leading PV countries in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, led by China, Japan, and India, will stimulate regional growth of over 50% and account for more than 11 GW of PV demand in 2013.

“In 2013, we expect to see improvement in the market fundamentals that enable PV demand to return to double-digit growth,” Barker said. “Installed-system prices will continue to fall, and PV will become increasingly cost competitive across regions with high electricity rates, shortages in domestic supply, and growing renewable obligations to fulfill.”

According to the NPD Solarbuzz report, new PV opportunities from the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, the Caribbean, and other emerging regions will have a stronger impact on global demand from 2014 onwards. Emerging regions are forecast to account for less than 8% of global demand during 2013; however, this market share is expected to double by 2017, driven primarily by South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Israel, and Mexico.

Source: The NPD Group, Inc.